Between 1990 and 1999, real spending on the earned income tax credit (EITC) increased to $31.9 billion from $9.6 billion (in 1999 dollars). It is by far the largest cash or near-cash antipoverty policy in the United States. Moreover, with phased-in increases enacted in 1990 and in 1993, it became the most rapidly growing (substantial) item in the federal budget. Employment rates of single women with children also rose sharply over this period and welfare caseloads fell precipitously. The coincident timing of these trends raises the question of the degree to which the EITC expansions had a causal effect on employment (and welfare use) of single women with children.
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