| Publisher | Centre for Economic Policy Research | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Format | 258.9KB PDF | Date added | 01 Aug 2001 |
| Topics | Performance Budgeting and Management, Financial Management | ||
| Downloads | 124 | ||
In this paper, the authors derive a comprehensive one-year ahead forecasting model of US per capita GDP for 1955-2000, examining collectively variables usually considered singly, e.g. interest rates, credit conditions, the stock market, oil prices and the yield gap, of which all, except the last, are found to matter. The credit conditions index is measured in the Federal Reserve's Survey of Senior Loan Officers and its importance is consistent with a 'financial accelerator' view. The balance of payments, exchange rate and fiscal policy also play a role.
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