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Learning to Trust Lula: Contagion and Political Risk in Brazil

PublisherUniversity of Warwick
Format175.4KB PDFDate added01 Jul 2004
Topics Financial Management
Downloads24

In this paper, the high Brazilian country risk in 2002 and the Sudden Stop in capital flows is interpreted as reflecting "political equilibrium" in a context where, for the first time, a charismatic Left-wing leader had a strong run for office. The paper shows how, for reasons suggested by Alesina, sovereign spreads will move in line with opinion polls, rising with the popularity of Left-wing president.

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