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Accounting for Real Exchange Rate Changes in East Asia

PublisherVanderbilt University
Format239.0KB PDF, requires Acrobat Rdr 5Date added01 Apr 2001
Topics Currency Conversion, Economic Modeling
Downloads6

This study measures the proportion of real exchange rate movements that can be accounted for by movements in the relative price of non-traded goods among twenty-one bilateral Asian-Pacific real exchange rates. Following Engel (1999), the decomposition is done at all possible horizons that the data allow – from one month up to 25 years. Evidence presented here is consistent with that from U.S. dollar based real exchange rates from high-income countries.

In particular, relative prices of non-traded goods appear to account for virtually none of the mean squared error of East Asian real exchange rates. This pattern holds (mostly) across fixed and flexible regimes, and is unaffected by the cross-sectional variation in either income level, or the degree of openness present among these Pacific-Rim economies. However, movements in the relative price of non-traded goods do appear to account for a substantial portion of the drift in one-third of the bilateral real exchange rates studied.

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