| Publisher | Goldman Sachs & Co. | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Format | HTML | Date added | 11 Nov 2003 |
| Topics | |||
| Downloads | 18 | ||
What is the purpose of modelling, in any field? Clearly, it is divination whether foretelling the future, or controlling it. So my task here is to foretell the future of a field that itself tries to foretell the future. To do that, I must first locate the present: what works now, and why. My view is a parochial one; I wasn't trained as an economist, but as a natural scientist who, for the past 10 years or so, has made a living and had some fun building the models and systems used by people who trade complex, mostly derivative, securities for their living. It is interesting, though limited, work, but it is what I know about, from the bottom up. So let me start by giving you one view of the derivatives trading environment today: vast struggles with dispersed data and information and record-keeping, all overlaid with ambitious, sometimes astonishingly successful, attempts to describe the underlying phenomena with the classical tools of the natural sciences. People worry about model risk, but I think the largest risks are procedural, administrative and operational.
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